Boxing Day Football Predictions
BBC Sport's football expert Mark Lawrenson is pitting his wits against a different guest each week this season.
MOTD commentator Guy Mowbray
Mowbray is backing Liverpool and Man Utd for wins, but tips QPR to hold Arsenal
Lawro's opponent for the Boxing Day Premier League fixtures is Match of the Day commentator Guy Mowbray.
Mowbray is backing leaders Chelsea to maintain their three-point lead at the top of the table, but thinks they and second-placed Manchester City will both have to battle to get the busy festive period off to a winning start.
"Chelsea's 100% home run has to end sometime, but I don't think it will just yet," Mowbray told BBC Sport. "They'll be run close by West Ham though.
"City will get the job done at West Brom but not without a fright. I think that might be the game of the day."
Premier League predictions
Result Lawro Guy
BOXING DAY
Chelsea v West Ham
x-x
2-0
2-1
Burnley v Liverpool
x-x
0-2
1-3
Crystal Palace v Southampton
x-x
1-1
1-1
Everton v Stoke
x-x
2-1
2-2
Leicester v Tottenham
x-x
1-1
2-1
Man Utd v Newcastle
x-x
2-0
3-0
Sunderland v Hull
x-x
2-1
2-0
Swansea v Aston Villa
x-x
2-0
1-1
West Brom v Man City
x-x
0-2
2-3
Arsenal v QPR
x-x
3-0
1-1
A correct result (picking a win, draw or defeat) is worth ONE point. Getting the exact score correct earns THREE points.
Last week, Lawro got six correct results from 10 games, with two perfect scores.
His score of 10 points edged out singer Olly Murs, who also picked six correct results, but with one perfect score to give him a total of eight points.
We are keeping a record of the totals for Lawro and his guests (below), and showing a table of how the Premier League would look if all of Lawro's predictions were correct (at the bottom of the page).
Total scores after week 17
Lawro
123
Guests
116
LAWRO'S PREDICTIONS
All kick-offs 15:00 GMT unless otherwise stated.
BOXING DAY
Chelsea v West Ham
Chelsea v West Ham (12:45 GMT)
Of all the teams at the top end of the table, you could argue West Ham have been the biggest surprise story of all.
The thing about the Hammers is that they can not only change the direction of a game from the bench, but can also change the way they play.
Among the strike options in their squad, they have got target men and plenty of pace too. There is competition for places too, so everything about that situation is positive.
Chelsea manager Jose Mourinho accused the Hammers of playing "19th century football" when they took an ultra-defensive approach to this fixture last season, and came away with a 0-0 draw.
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I don't see the Hammers setting up the same way this time but, make no mistake, this is the biggest challenge of their season.
Chelsea being top of the table at Christmas does not mean they are going to win the league, but they are in very good shape with a tight bunch of players who are strong ability-wise and mentally.
Lawro's prediction: 2-0
Guy's prediction: 2-1
Match preview.
Burnley v Liverpool
Burnley v Liverpool
Continue reading the main story
“Liverpool boss Brendan Rodgers has brought in a 3-4-3 formation that suits the players he has got”
Burnley were beaten by Tottenham last time out but they put up a decent fight before losing out to a lovely goal.
There will be a great atmosphere at Turf Moor and it is a very different test for Liverpool compared to their last two games against Manchester United and Arsenal.
The Reds only picked up a total of one point from those two games but, despite their indifferent form, it feels as if there is light at the end of the tunnel.
Liverpool boss Brendan Rodgers has brought in a 3-4-3 formation that suits the players he has got, even though it has taken him an awfully long time to find it.
With Adam Lallana and Philippe Coutinho pressing, and Raheem Sterling playing through the middle, there is a nice balance to their team.
I just hope Rodgers does not make a raft of changes for their first game of the festive period. He does not want to risk losing this bit of momentum now.
Lawro's prediction: 0-2
Guy's prediction: 1-3. "I've enjoyed watching Burnley and I think they might have enough to stay up - I just think they're facing an 'angry' Liverpool at the wrong time."
Match preview.
Crystal Palace v Southampton
Crystal Palace v Southampton
Southampton were missing a few players against Everton last weekend and still rolled them over. That was a big result for Saints and it arrested their slide.
Crystal Palace competed well early on against Manchester City, but ended up being well beaten.
I get the impression with Palace that, if they score first, they can give teams a decent game. If they concede first, it is a real problem to them.
I am pretty certain Eagles boss Neil Warnock will look to bring a few new players in when the January transfer window opens.
Warnock knows they are in a relegation fight and he also knows what they need to stay up. They are not under-achieving by being fourth bottom and, if they are still there at the end of the season, then it is happy days for them.
Lawro's prediction: 1-1
Guy's prediction: 1-1. "Could have tossed a coin with this one, so will go for the middle option. Palace to score first."
Match preview.
Everton v Stoke
Everton v Stoke
Both of these sides have been very inconsistent this season - Stoke have not won back-to-back Premier League games, and Everton have only managed it once.
Stoke rarely seem to lose two league games in a row either but, after their defeat by Chelsea on Monday, I do not see them bouncing back this time.
Lawro's prediction: 2-1
Guy's prediction: 2-2. "Everton simply must be better than they were at Southampton on Saturday. Another game where no result would come as a surprise."
Match preview.
Leicester v Tottenham
Leicester v Tottenham
I could save a lot of time here and just say Tottenham will nick a 2-1 win in the last minute.
That was the story of their last away game against Swansea, just as it was against Hull and Aston Villa in the last couple of months too.
Tottenham midfielder Christian Eriksen
Tottenham midfielder Christian Eriksen celebrates after scoring a last-gasp winner against Swansea
Leicester have lost nine of their last 10 league games and are in real danger of just slipping away.
They are five points adrift of safety and desperately need to arrest the slide they are on.
They should not look at Spurs and see anything to be scared of and, if they avoid making silly mistakes, they have a chance of picking up at least a point.
Lawro's prediction: 1-1
Guy's prediction: 2-1. "Leicester need the win a whole lot more and will see this as 'the one' with two away games to follow."
Match preview.
Man Utd v Newcastle
Man Utd v Newcastle
Continue reading the main story
“United are Champions League material but a top-four finish is as far as it goes for them this season”
I thought Manchester United were quite disappointing in their draw with Aston Villa last time out, especially when you consider Louis van Gaal's side were on a six-game winning run and played against 10 men for the last 25 minutes after Gabriel Agbonlahor was sent off.
But I never thought United were title contenders. They are Champions League material, but a top-four finish is as far as it goes for them this season.
I think they will beat Newcastle, though.
The Magpies have just come off a bad run of three defeats in a week. They conceded four goals in each of their first two losses and, although they were only beaten by a late Sunderland goal on Sunday, I felt the Black Cats made the better chances and played better football.
I am at Old Trafford for BBC Radio 5 live on Boxing Day, and I am expecting to see Newcastle get turned over.
Lawro's prediction: 2-0
Guy's prediction: 3-0. "Newcastle won at Old Trafford last year but I'd be surprised if it happens again. The demanding Louis van Gaal is ordering and getting improvement from his United team, while Newcastle look a little 'burned out' after their winning run in November."
Match preview.
Sunderland v Hull
Sunderland v Hull
Sunderland played extremely well in their Tyne-Wear derby win over Newcastle at the weekend. They played the opposition, while the Magpies played the occasion, and I think that was the difference.
The Black Cats made lots of chances too, which is not something they manage too often - and they probably fancy themselves to win this and go on a bit of a run.
Hull lost again, against Swansea, last time out and the second half of that game must have been really worrying for Tigers manager Steve Bruce.
Hull manager Steve Bruce
Hull manager Steve Bruce has only seen his side win one Premier League game since the opening day of the season
Usually, he can rely on his teams to scrap, but there was no sign of that at all.
I would like to think that is down to a lack of confidence after going 10 games without a win. If it is, Bruce can turn that round and they will be OK, but they should be doing a lot better than they are.
Lawro's prediction: 2-1
Guy's prediction: 2-0. "Hull are in a whole lot of trouble, while Sunderland should enjoy a surge of confidence after their derby win. I'm even going for Jozy Altidore to score!"
Match preview.
Swansea v Aston Villa
Swansea v Aston Villa
Continue reading the main story
“I am backing Wilfried Bony to win the battle of the two strikers with Villa's Christian Benteke”
Swansea are another team who seem to struggle to string a run of positive results together, at least since they started the season with three straight wins.
They still look capable of beating a lot of teams because they have got Wilfried Bony in the side, but the only worry there is that he could miss as many as six matches when he goes to the Africa Cup of Nations with Ivory Coast in January.
It was a bit of a mixed bag for Aston Villa over the weekend, with an unfortunate sending off for Gabriel Agbonlahor - since overturned - and a quality goal for Christian Benteke, but it added up to a decent draw for them against Manchester United.
Benteke's return to form means they have a little bit more about them at the moment, but I am backing Bony to win the battle of the two strikers on this occasion.
Lawro's prediction: 2-0
Guy's prediction: 1-1. "Bony and Benteke."
Match preview.
West Brom v Man City
West Brom v Man City
Continue reading the main story
“Having David Silva back fit again is massive for Man City”
West Brom worry me. To be 2-0 up at QPR and then throw it away shows that, mentally, there is a problem there.
Manchester City beat Crystal Palace without any strikers in their last game and they will be confident of picking the Baggies off too.
Having David Silva back fit again is massive for City, and they look dangerous whenever he is on the ball and zipping passes around with Yaya Toure and Samir Nasri outside and inside the box.
City have won their last eight games, so will be full of confidence, and I think they will make it nine wins out of nine at The Hawthorns.
Lawro's prediction: 0-2
Guy's prediction: 2-3
Match preview.
Arsenal v QPR
Arsenal v QPR
QPR are away from home - what are people expecting me to say!?
Harry Redknapp's side have lost all eight of their Premier League matches on the road this season and it hard to see them improving that dismal record at Emirates Stadium.
Lawro on... can QPR stay up?
"It looks like QPR's survival hopes are going to depend totally on their home form. But they cannot rely on Charlie Austin's goals alone to keep them up because he will stop scoring at some stage.
"Austin has scored 11 goals and is having a great season but Harry Redknapp does not seem to have a Plan B.
"Aside from Austin, only two of their players have scored more than once in the league this season - Leroy Fer and Eduardo Vargas - and they have only netted twice apiece."
Arsenal's draw at Anfield on Sunday was a strange game in many ways.
Gunners boss Arsene Wenger played five attacking players and, despite having so little possession and seeing Liverpool have so many shots, he will be disappointed that his side did not leave with all three points.
The question of how strong Arsenal are defensively continues to hang over them but I do not see that being an issue here.
They are at home and they will commit lots of players forward and I can see them creating lots of opportunities against QPR.
Lawro's prediction: 3-0
Guy's prediction: 1-1. "My big outsider - Rangers to heap more frustration on the Gunners by getting their first away point of the season. This may be influenced by the fact that I'm going to Loftus Road on Sunday!"
Match preview.
Lawro was speaking to BBC Sport's Chris Bevan
Lawro v Guests
P17
W7
D3
L7
SCORE GUEST LEADERBOARD
11
Steph Houghton
10
Liam Fray, Rachel Riley
8
Roddy Doyle, Tim Henman, Olly Murs, Henning Wehn, Benedict Wong
7.24
Lawro (average after 17 weeks)
7
Miles Jacobson, Ossie Ardiles
6
Football Manager, Mark Wright & Karen Hauer
5
Joe Cole, Sarah Harding & Leon Fagbemi, Van McCann, Adil Ray
4
Kell Brook
2
Neil Lennon
Lawro's best score: 17 points (week seven v Ossie Ardiles)
Lawro's worst score: 3 points (week nine v Mark Wright and Karen Hauer)
BBC Sport expert Mark Lawrenson
ARROWS DENOTE DIFFERENCE TO REAL TABLE
POS TEAM P W D L PTS DIFF +/-
1.
Chelsea
17
15
2
0
47
Side arrow
0
2.
Man City
17
14
3
0
45
Side arrow
0
3.
Arsenal
17
11
5
1
38
Up arrow
+3
4.
Man Utd
17
11
3
3
36
Down arrow
-1
5.
Liverpool
17
9
7
1
31
Up arrow
+5
6.
Everton
17
7
6
4
27
Up arrow
+5
7.
Southampton
17
7
4
6
25
Down arrow
-2
8.
Tottenham
17
6
7
4
25
Down arrow
-1
9.
Stoke
17
6
5
6
23
Up arrow
+4
10.
Newcastle
17
4
8
5
20
Down arrow
-1
11.
Sunderland
17
4
7
6
19
Up arrow
+3
12.
Aston Villa
17
5
3
9
18
Side arrow
0
13.
Hull
17
6
0
11
18
Up arrow
+6
14.
West Ham
17
4
5
8
17
Down arrow
-10
15.
Crystal Palace
17
5
2
10
17
Up arrow
+2
16.
Swansea
17
4
3
10
15
Down arrow
-8
17.
QPR
17
4
2
11
14
Down arrow
-1
18.
Burnley
17
3
4
10
13
Side arrow
0
19.
West Brom
17
2
5
10
11
Down arrow
-4
20.
Leicester
17
2
2
13
8
Side arrow
0
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